【2019】冷戰丨低盪時期


題目拆解

參考答案(中文版)

(a) 漫畫家對美國持什麼看法?試參考資料E,解釋你的答案。(3分)

考生表現

表現良好。題目要求考生指出漫畫家對美國所持看法。不少考生能夠指出漫畫反映美國採取雙重標準。表現稍遜的考生誤解資料,一些考生以為該漫畫家支持美國對蘇聯動武,另一些則以為該漫畫旨在描述美國的軍力遜於蘇聯。

評分參考

L1 答案含混,未能有效運用資料作答。 [最多1分]

L2 答案清晰,能參考資料作有效解釋。 [最多3分]

看法:

例:

- 美國是虛偽的。

解釋:

例:

- 甘迺迪譴責赫魯曉夫在美國的門外布置火箭,但他自己卻在蘇聯的門外做著同樣的事,甚至布置了更多。

參考答案

漫畫家認為美國自私,口講要蘇聯裁軍,但自己卻不行。


美國要求蘇聯撤軍。參考資料E,漫畫標題為「我的門外不容有你的火箭」,此話由甘迺迪所說,意思是要對方裁撤武器以保障安全。可見,美國批評蘇聯在其附近設置導彈基地,威脅國防,要求其迅速除下。

然而,美國卻在蘇聯門前設下武備。參考資料E,漫畫右方是「赫魯曉夫」(為蘇聯領導人),代表著共產主義世界。甘迺迪在其門前設下「土耳其、波斯等等的基地」,全副武裝蓄勢待發。可見,美軍在競爭對手門前裝置導彈,但卻不許對方這樣做,是個自私的國家。


(b) 美國參與國外的戰爭如何影響其財政預算?試參考資料F,解釋你的答案。(4分)

考生表現

表現平平。題目要求考生解釋美國參與國外的戰爭如何影響其財政預算。不少考生能夠運用資料解釋韓戰和越戰兩個時期如何影響美國的財政預算。表現稍遜的答卷胡亂引錄資料內容,未能作出有效的推論。

評分參考

L1 答案含混,未能有效運用資料作答。 [最多2分]

L2 答案清晰,能參考資料作有效解釋。 [最多4分]

解釋:

例:

- 1950-1955年:國際開支攀升,財政預算赤字增加,反映了美國參與韓戰的軍事開支。

- 1959-1950年:國防開支攀升,財政預算赤字增加,反映了美國參與越戰的軍事開支。


參考答案

美國參與國外戰爭增加國防開支。參考資料F,1950-1952年韓戰期間,美國平均國防開支由11687.5(百萬美元)上升至27793(百萬美元),佔開支百分比由33.9增加至50.7。這反映美國花費巨額金錢於對外戰爭,其劇烈增加國防開支。


美國參與國外戰爭造成赤字。參考資料F,1968-1970年越戰期間,美國平均赤字由5754.3(百萬美元)增加至12314.3(百萬美元),足足增長1倍有多。這表示士兵、武器、運輸花費甚巨,美國經濟因國外戰爭而損失甚多。

美國參與國外戰爭增加欠債額。參考資料F,1947-1949年間美國聯邦總欠債為253930(百萬美元),但隨冷戰升溫,美國積極介入對外戰爭。出兵、資金援助、武器供應等鉅額斥資,使之1968-1970年間聯邦總欠債為371791.7(百萬美元),增幅約50%,顯示國外對爭使美國欠債累累。

(c) 美蘇關係為何於1960年代末及1970年代出現緩和?試參考資料E及F,並就你所知,解釋你的答案。(8分)

考生表現

表現令人滿意。題目要求考生解釋美蘇關係為何於1960年代末及1970年代出現緩和。不少考生能夠討論關係緩和的相關成因。表現稍遜的答卷列舉美蘇合作的例證,惟未能聯繫到兩國關係緩和的成因。


評分參考

L1 答案含混,未能有效運用資料及個人所知。 [最多2分]

L2 欠缺均衡,僅能有效運用資料個人所知。 [最多4分]

L3 答案合理且均衡,能有效運用資料個人所知。 [最多8分]

資料:

例:

- 軍備競賽及核擴散讓兩個超級大國懼怕戰爭。(資料E)

- 軍事開支不斷攀升。(資料F)


個人所知:

例:

- 持續參與外戰,政策遂出現調整。

- 中蘇交惡,中國尋求與美國建立緊密的關係。

- 國家領導人交棒(尼克遜總統)有利於推動新的外交政策。

參考答案

以下將解釋1960年代末及1970年代美蘇關係得到改善的原因。

第一,對核子戰爭的恐懼導致美蘇關係緩和。參考資料E,甘迺迪對蘇聯武器抱有戒心。例如漫畫標題為「我的門外不容有你的火箭」,疑慮這有損美方國土安全。與此同時,目睹前外有4支「蘇聯在土耳其、波斯等等的基地」火箭,赫魯曉夫亦感不滿,憂慮蘇聯安全受威脅。可見,對大殺傷力軍備的恐懼誘使美蘇放下成見握手言歡,導致低盪時期出現。


第二,美蘇關係緩和能紓解軍備競賽。參考資料E,兩大超級強國積極擴展武器。例如蘇聯門外有4支印有美國國旗的火箭,又,美國門前有2支附上蘇聯國徽的火箭。這顯示美蘇就軍備項目競爭不斷,而展開談判加強溝通能扭轉此情況。可見,1960年代末及1970年代出現低盪時期。


第三,經濟負擔導致美蘇關係緩和。參考資料F,美國於二戰前的國防佔整體開支為17%,但隨冷戰爆發,國開開支由1947-1949年的11687.7百萬美元(佔33.9%)增加至1968-1970年82038.3百萬美元(佔44.2%),而聯邦總欠債亦達371791.7百萬美元,史無前例。為免經濟發展被拖垮,美蘇有必要改善關係停止對抗,塑造低盪時期出現。

第四,美蘇關係緩和能刺激經濟。參考資料F,美國關係改善好處多多。例如1956-1958年兩強曾召開會議討論共存原則,此時美國錄得606百萬美元盈餘,而國防開支亦比上年度(1953-1955)少約4000百萬美元。可見,經濟誘因吸引她倆破冰交流,致使低盪時期出現。


第五,中蘇關係決裂導致美蘇關係改善。就我所知,隨史太林去世(1953)赫魯曉夫上場,毛澤東跟他在多方面意見不合。例如雙方就黑龍江流域的珍寶島歸尉問題(1969)發生武裝衝突,中方最後控制該地。於此情況下,失去盟友支持的蘇共只好跟美方談判,藉此重整戰略,促成低盪時期出現。

第六,越戰教訓導致美蘇關係改善。就我所知,為免共產黨席捲全球,美軍介入越南內戰(1961-1975),向阮文紹提供軍隊、武備。然而,整場戰爭美國損失34萬士兵、4000多架戰機、760萬噸彈藥(相當於二戰的3倍)、3000多億美元軍費。嚴重傷亡迫使美國跟蘇共談判,以保自身利益,導致低盪時期出現。

第七,新領導人上場導致美蘇關係破冰。就我所知,1950年代赫魯曉夫上台,他相對於前任領導開明。例如召開日內瓦會議(1955)跟西方商討「和平共存」原則,又與尼克遜副總統進行互訪(1959)。這為雙方溝通奠下基礎,使之1960年代末展開一系列談判,下啟低盪時期。


第八,維持自身優勢使之美蘇關係改善。就我所知,除美蘇外其他國家亦競爭世界元首寶座。軍事方面,英國(1952)、法國(1960)、中國(1964)相繼成功試爆原子彈;經濟方面,歐洲共同體(1967)發展一日千里,成為一大經濟體。為免後來者居之,美蘇採取善意態度改善關係。例如締結《不擴散核武器條約》(1968),保證她倆霸權地位,引致低盪時期出現。


第九,古巴導彈危機導致美蘇關係改善。就我所知,針對美國在土耳其和意大利設置軍事基地(1959),蘇聯於古巴裝置飛彈回應(1962)。但由於古巴鄰近美國(導彈能直擊華盛頓),故甘迺迪作海上封鎖抗議。雙方惶恐危機升級成戰爭,又怕核武摧毀彼此。因此展開談判修補關係。例如設熱線(1963)、簽訂《禁止核試條約》(1963)等,低盪時期隨之而來。


參考答案(英文版)

(a) What was the cartoonist’s view towards the USA? Explain your answer with reference to Source E. (3 marks)



Candidates’ Performance

Performance was good. This question required candidates to identify the cartoonist’s view towards the USA. Many candidates managed to identify the US’s double standard as reflected in the cartoon. The weak candidates misinterpreted the Source- some thought that the cartoonist supported the USA in fighting the USSR; others thought that the cartoon described the US military force as being weaker than the USSR.


Marking Scheme

L1 Vague explanation and ineffective use of the Source. [max. 1]

L2 Clear answer with effective explanation with reference to the Source. [max. 3]


View:

e.g.

- The USA was hypocritical.


Explanation:

e.g.

- Kennedy blamed Khrushchev for putting missiles at the doorstep of the USA, but he himself did exactly the same- with even more missiles- at the Soviet doorstep.


Suggested Answer

The cartoonist thought the USA was selfish that only requested the USSR to disarm while refusing to disarm itself.


The USA requested the USSR to withdraw its troops. From Source E, the title of the cartoon, which was “Intolerable Having Your Rockets on MYDoorstep”, was told by Kennedy in requesting the USSR to disarm so as to safeguard the national security of the US. This showed the USA criticized USSR for establishing missile base near the US, threatening the US’s national security. Hence, it requested for disarmament of the USSR.

However, the USA armed in front of the USSR. From Source E, “Nikita Khrushchev” (the leader of the USSR) who stood at the right side in the cartoon represented the world of communism. Kennedy established “US bases in Turkey, Persia, etc, etc” in front of Khrushchev, reflecting US was well-armed. This showed the USA established missiles in front of its competitor while not allowing its competitor to do so. Therefore, the USA was a selfish country.

(b) How did the USA’s participation in foreign wars affect its budget? Explain your answer with reference to Source F. (4 marks)

Candidates’ Performance

Performance was fair. This question required candidates to explain how the USA’s participation in foreign wars affected its budget. Many candidates managed to make use of the Source to explain how the two periods represented by the Korean War and Vietnam War affected the US budget. The answers copied indiscriminately from the Source without making any valid inference.


Marking Scheme

L1 Vague explanation and ineffective use of the Source. [max. 2]

L2 Clear answer with effective explanation with reference to the Source. [max. 4]


e.g.

-1950-55: the mounting figures of national defence and growing deficit budget reflect the military expenditure involved in the USA’s participation in the Korean War.

-1959-70: the mounting figures of national defence and growing deficit budget reflect the military expenditure involved in the USA’s participation in the Vietnam War.



Suggested Answer

The USA’s participation in foreign wars increased its national defence expenditure. From Source F, during “1950-1952” the Korean War, the average national defence expenditure of the US increased from “11687.5” millions US dollars to “27793” millions US dollars, increasing its percentage in accounting for the total expenditure from “33.9” to “50.7”. This showed the USA spent immense capitals in participating in foreign wars that raised the national defence expenditure rapidly.


The USA’s participation in foreign wars led to deficit. From Source F, during “1968-1970” the Vietnam War, the average deficit of the USA increased from “5754.3” millions US dollars to “12314.3” millions US dollars, reflecting a double in growth. This showed expenditure in soldiers, armaments and transportation was large, leading to huge suffer in the US’s economy.

The USA’s participation in foreign wars increased its federal debt. From Source F, the gross federal debt of the US during “1947-1949” was “253930” millions US dollars. However, the USA intervened in foreign wars actively after the outbreak of Cold War, leading to a severe increase in its federal debt to “371791.7” millions US dollars during “1968-1970”. This showed an increase of 50% compared to before. Hence, participation in foreign wars increased the US’s federal debt.

(c) Why did détente take place between the USA and the USSR in the late 1960s and 1970s? Explain your answer with reference to Sources E and F and using your own knowledge. (8 marks)



Candidates’ Performance

Performance was satisfactory. This question required candidates to explain why détente took place between the USA and the USSR in the late 1960s and 1970s. Many candidates were able to write about the causes of détente. The answers listed examples that illustrated USA-USSR cooperation without relating these to causes of détente.


Marking Scheme

L1 Vague answer, ineffective in using both Sources and own knowledge. [max. 2]

L2 Lack in balance, effective in using Sources or own knowledge only. [max. 4]

L3 Sound and balanced answer, effective in using both Sources and own knowledge. [max. 8]


Sources:

e.g.

- Armament race and nuclear proliferation led to fear of war between the two superpowers. (Source E)

- Mounting military expenditure. (Source F)

Own knowledge:

e.g.

- Continual involvement in overseas wars led to policy review.

- China broke with the USSR and sought a close relationship with the USA.

- Change of leadership (President Richard Nixon) facilitated new diplomatic policies.

Suggested Answer

Below are reasons for the occurence of détentebetween the US and USSR in the late 1960s and 1970s.

First, the fear of nuclear war led to détente. According to source E, Kennedy was suspicious towards the armaments of USSR. For instance, the caption of the comic ‘Intolerable Having Your Rockets on MYDoorstep’shows that he worried the national safety of the US. At the same time, Khrushchev was discontent with “the US base in Turkey and Persia”, showing that the USSR also worried about the threat from nuclear weapons. As a consequence, in fear of threatening and lethal armaments, the US and USSR improve their relation, bringing about détente.


Second, the improvement of relation between the US and USSR alleviated armament race. According to source E, two superpowers expanded their armaments actively. For example, there were 4 US rockets in front of the USSR, and 2 USSR rockets in front of the US. Under such circumstances, increase communication and cooperation can ease armament race and hence bring about détente.


Thirdly, economic burden lead to relaxation of US-USSR relation. According to source F, the US average national defence as percentage of expenditurebefore WW2 was 17%, yet since cold war had begun, the US average national defence expenditure increased from 11687.7 (33.9% of total expenditure) in 1947-1949 to 82038.3 (44.2% of total expenditure) in 1968-1970. More importantly, the average gross federal debt (in millions US dollars)reached 371791.7. Hence, the US and USSR made efforts to improve their relation in order to decrease expenditure on conflicting and so prevent economic downturn, bringing about détente.


Fourth, ease of tension between the US and USSR could stimulate economic development. According to source F, the US had 606 average surplus (in millions US dollars)(1956-1958) when the two superpowers held peaceful meetings. At the same time, the average national defence expenditure was 4000 million US dollars less than that in the period 1953-1955. This shows that economic incentive paved the way for détente.


Fifth, break off relation between China and USSR led to improved relation between the US and USSR. According to my own knowledge, Mao was discontent with Khrushchev, for example the armed conflicts in 1969. Under the lost of ally, USSR could only improve relation with the US, leading to détente.

Sixth, lesson learnt from the Vietnam War led to improvements of the US and USSR relation. According to my own knowledge, to check the spread of communism, the US army intervened in the civil war in Vietnam (1961-1975). However, the US lost and suffer from great losses, including 34 thousands soldiers, more than 4000 planes and 760 thousands ammunition. Such losses and heavy casualties forced the US to negotiate and improve relation with USSR, leading to détente.

Seventh, change of leadership led to détente. According to my own knowledge, Khrushchev, who was open-minded, became the leader of the USSR in 1950s. His initiation of Geneva conference in 1955 created the idea of peaceful coexistence between capitalism and communism, also, with his visit with Nixon in 1959, the US and USSR were less tense and paved the way for further negotiation and communication, finally leading to détente.

Eighth, in consideration of their own world leader position, the two superpowers improved their relation. According to my own knowledge, other countries apart from the US and USSR were also competing to become the leader of the world. For example, militarily, Britain (1952), France (1960) and China (1964) successfully invented atomic bomb; Economically, the ECC (1967) became the powerful and representative world economic body. To prevent being outcompete, the US and USSR signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968, leading to détente.

Lastly, the Cuban missile crisis led to détente. According to my own knowledge, in response to US missile base in Turkey and Italy, USSR built a missile base in Cuba in 1962. As Cuba was only 90km away from the US, this directly threatened the national security of the US, leading to the naval blockade on Cuba by the US. The tension nearly convert the crisis into a nuclear war, in fear of such huge destruction, they set up telephone hotline in 1963 and signed the Nuclear test ban treaty in 1963, paved the way for détente.