【2016】一戰丨錯誤盤算



題目拆解


參考答案(中文版)


(a) 為資料G的漫畫建議一個標題。試參考資料G,為你的選擇提供理據。(2分)


考生表現

表現令人滿意。題目要求考生為漫畫建議一個標題,並參考資料G提供理據。大部分考生均能善用相關線索解決所選標題。部分表現稍遜的考生錯判漫畫人物所代表的國家,因而失分;另一些則置資料於不顧,答案因而無關題旨。

評分準則

L1 嘗試建議標題,但欠缺理據。 [最多1分] L2 能建議合適的標題,所提供之理據亦佳。 [最多3分]

標題︰ 例︰ - 堂堂帝國,小錯大禍 - 傻兵亂國


解釋︰ 例︰ - 漫畫中代表德國的父子錯誤使用望遠鏡,因而錯判英國巨獅的實力(以巨獅的大小比喻之)。這喻意德國不自量力,錯判形勢。

參考答案

將建議漫畫的標題為「目中無人」。 首先,資料G出版自1914年10月的「英國」,而此時德國挑戰英國的霸權地位,但實情英國是傳統歐洲勁旅,而德國不過是新興國家,所以「目中無人」帶出不自量力的意思正符合漫畫內容。 其次,資料G象徵「英國」的獅子於「霍亨索倫偷鏡片」下弱不禁風,資料中的父子更明言「把它踩死」,意咪著德國將會打倒英國成為世界霸主。 然而,上述描述卻有違事實。 因資料A的英國獅子於「肉眼」下威猛慑人,張牙舞爪,該父子更道「哪裹出錯了吧」,這可推斷漫畫諷刺德國驕傲自大,看不起人,因此以「目中無人」為標題最好不過。

(b) 你認為資料H的作者會否支持德國在1914年參戰?試參考資料H的用語,解釋你的答案。(3分)


考生表現

表現令人滿意。題目要求考生解釋資料H作答是否支持德國參考第一次世界大戰,並以資料的用語解釋其答案。不少考生能夠指出作者的負面態度,並能從資料選取與「用語」相關的線索作答。少數考生沒有留意關鍵詞「用語」,答案因而與題旨無關。

評分準則

L1 答案含混,未能有效運用資料作答。 [最多1分] L2 答案清晰,能參考資料作有效解釋。 [最多3分]

作者不會支持德國在1914年參戰。 解釋︰ 例︰ - 作者用「失去理智」、「無知」等負面字詞形容「支持參戰的人」,並賤他們稱為「戰爭販子」,反映他不支持參戰。

參考答案

資料H的作者不會支持德國於1914年參戰。 作者於資料H直指那大多數支持戰爭的人「失去理智」,失去思考和判斷力,憑感覺情緒胡亂支持戰爭,所以作者是不會支持德國在1914年參戰。 同時,作者認為支持戰爭的都是「好戰之徒」,不但熱衷於戰爭而且「無知」的,盲目地支持開戰,故作者不會支持德國於1914年參戰。 最後,作者指戰爭是「恐怖」的,認為戰爭將會讓生命受到威嚇,故他不會支持德國於1914年參戰。

(c) 「第一次世界大戰主要由歐洲列強的錯誤盤算所導致。」你是否同意此說?試參考資料G及H,並就你所知,解釋你的答案。(7分)


考生表現

表現尚可。題目要求考生討論第一次世界大戰是否主要由歐洲列強的錯誤盤算所導致。換言之,考生應評估這些錯誤盤算相對於第一次世界大戰最少一個其他原因的重要性。幾乎所有考生均能清楚指出並解釋自己的觀點,並參考資料及就個人所知作答。表現最出色的考生能夠均衡討論大戰不同原因的相對重要性。部分表現稍遜的考生忽略題目關鍵詞「盤算」和「主要」,僅默寫有關第一次世界大戰成因的範文。

評分準則

L1 答案含混,未能有效使用資料及個人所知。 [最多2分] L2 答案缺乏均衡,僅能有效運用資料或個人所知。 [最多4分] L3 答案有力且均衡,能有效運用資料及個人所知。 [最多7分]

錯誤盤算︰ 例︰ - 德國錯估英國實力(資料G) - 開戰前夕,德國國內參戰氣氛濃厚,政府因而錯估戰爭的勝數。(資料H) - 德國基於施里芬計劃,錯誤估計英、俄等國的反應,導致提早出兵,戰鬥力大減。(個人所知) 其他因素︰ 例︰ - 泛日耳曼主義等極端民族主義點燃起戰火。(資料H) - 結盟制度、軍備競賽等使歐洲戰火蔓延。(個人所知) - 塞拉耶佛暗殺事件提供了所需的燎原星光,讓大戰發生。(個人所知)

參考答案

題目所言確能成立。 第一,德國的錯誤盤算導致一戰。參考資料G,代表德國的父子用「霍亨索倫偷鏡片」觀察英國獅子弱不禁風,誤以為英國乃縛雞之力,宣言要「把它踩死」,主張發動戰爭把她征服,錯判形勢導致一戰爆發。 參考資料H,作者指指那些支持戰爭的民眾認為「再來四十年的和平」將會是德國的「不幸」,誤以為發動戰爭將為德國帶來豐厚利益,並「在勝利中把法國壓倒在地上」,錯判形勢以為德國將輕易擊倒法國而挑起一戰,實為盤算錯誤。 第二,英國的錯誤盤算導致一戰爆發。基於資料G的漫畫由英國出版,描繪英國獅子威猛懾人、威震四方,認為英國實力勢如破竹,德國父子動悉真相後喊「哪旅出了錯」停止進攻,誤以為德國不會貿然發動戰爭,確為錯誤盤算。 第三,奧匈的錯誤盤算導致一戰爆發。就我所知,奧匈於1914年6月28日塞拉耶佛危機後發出「最後通牒」,誤以為塞爾維亞選擇退讓結束危機。但卻弄巧成拙,塞爾維亞拒絕屈服反向奧匈出兵導致一戰爆發,實因錯誤盤算使然。 第四,俄國的錯誤盤算導致一戰爆發。就我所知,俄國於1914年發出「總動員令」支援塞爾維亞,共同對抗奧匈,錯判形勢誤以為勝券在握,但此舉惹來德國發出「最後通牒」將地區衝突演變成世界大戰,確因盤算錯誤導致。 然而,撇除錯誤盤算因素外還有其他因素導致一戰,但重要性較低。 第一,民族主義導致一戰。參考資料H,作者指「信奉日耳曼的主義的報章」都在鼓吹開戰,聲稱這是他們「渴望已久的時刻」,認為戰爭將為國家帶來民族光榮,極力拉攏民眾支持出兵,反映民族主義也導致第一次世界大戰爆發。 然而,錯誤盤算重要性較高。於因果關係而言,因為錯誤盤算誤判國家實力強弱,才導致民族主義情緒的高漲,相信他國將屈服於己國強大力量下,才導致第一次世界大戰爆發。 第二,同盟制度導致一戰。就我所知,三國同盟(1882)和三國協約(1907)的成立加強成員國開戰的決心,如塞拉耶佛危機(1914)後德國發出「空白支票」支持奧匈,奧匈堅定立場發出「最後通牒」拒絕讓步,導致第一次世界大戰爆發。 然而,因果關係而言,正因為錯誤盤算相信盟友的支援,如同為三國同盟的奧匈誤以為意大利將支持其軍事行動,加劇同盟國開戰決心,才導致第一次世界大戰爆發。 可見,題目所言成立。


參考答案(英文版)

(a) Suggest a caption for the cartoon in Source G. Justify your choice with reference to Source G. (3 marks)


Candidates Performance

Performance was satisfactory. The question required candidates to suggest a caption for the cartoon, and justify their choice with reference to Source G. most candidates made good use of the clues to justify the captions they suggested. Some weak candidates wrongly identified the country represented by the characters of the cartoon, and so lost marks. Others ignored the Source and gave irrelevant answers.

Marking Scheme

L1 Attempts to suggest a caption, marred by lack in justification. [max. 1] L2 Able to suggest an effective caption, with sound justification. [max. 3]


Caption: e.g.

- Stupid mistake of an empire makes a big trouble - Idiotic soldiers doing harm to their country Explanation: e.g.

- In the cartoon, the father and son (Germany) used the telescope in a wrong way, and in turn made wrong evaluation of the strength of the British lion, as symbolized by its different sizes in the cartoon. This means that Germany overestimated its strength and the circumstantial advantages.

Suggested Answer

The caption for the cartoon is suggested as “Too big for his boots”. Firstly, Source G was published in “British newspaper” in October 1914. At this time, Germany was challenging the supremacy of Britain. However, Germany was just an emerging power while Britain was a traditional European power. Thus, the caption “Too big for his boots” can show the arrogance of Germany which is in line with the content of cartoon. Secondly, in Source G, the lion representing Britain was extremely weak under “Hohenzollern glasses”. The father and son even claimed to “step on it and kill it”, reflecting that Germany would beat Britain and become the supreme power. However, the above description was not the truth. In Source G, the lion representing Britain was fierce and strong under the “naked eye”. It can be deduced that the cartoon was satirizing Germany being arrogant. Thus, the caption “Too big for his boots” was the most suitable one.

(b) Do you think that the author of Source H would support Germany’s participation in the war in 1914? Explain your answer with reference to the language used in Source H. (3 marks)


Candidates Performance

Performance was satisfactory. The question required candidates to explain whether the author of Source H would support Germany’s participation in the First World War with reference to the language used in the Source. Many candidates pointed out the author’s negative attitude, with appropriate clues related to ‘language’ used in the Source. A small number of candidates missed the key word ‘language’, and so wrote irrelevancies.

Marking Scheme

L1 Vague answer, ineffective in using the Source. [max. 1] L2 Clear answer, with good reference to the Source in making explanation. [max. 3]


The author would not support Germany’s participation in the war in 1914. Explanation: e.g.

- The used negative words such as ‘out of their mind’ and ‘ignorant’ to describe ‘the supporters of war’, and called them ‘war-mongers’. This reflected that he would not support Germany’s participation in the war in 1914.

Suggested Answer

The author of Source H would not support Germany’s participation in the war in 1914. According to Source H, the author pointed out that those war supporters were “out of their mind”. They had lost their critical thinking and supported war only by their fanaticism. Thus, the author would not support Germany to join the war in 1914. Moreover, in Source H, the author thought that war supporters were all “warlike fellows”. They were enthusiastic about war and also “ignorant” that they blindly supported to start war. Therefore, the author would not support Germany to join the war in 1914. Lastly, the author indicated “the horrors of war”, thinking that people’s lives would be threatened by war. Thus, he would not support Germany to join the war in 1914.

(c) ‘The First World War was caused primarily by the miscalculations of the European powers.’ Do you agree? Explain your answer with reference to Sources G and H and using your own knowledge. (7 marks)


Candidates Performance

Performance was fair. The question required candidates to discuss whether the First World War was caused primarily by the miscalculations of the European powers. In other words, candidates were required to assess the importance of such miscalculations relative to at least one other cause of the First World War. Almost all candidates stated and explained their standpoint clearly by referring to the Sources and their own knowledge. The best candidates were able to discuss the relative importance of causes of the War in a balanced manner. Some weak candidates ignored the kay words ‘miscalculations’ and ‘primarily’ in the question, and merely gave prepared answers on the causes of the First World War.

Marking Scheme

L1 Vague answer, ineffective in using both the Sources and own knowledge. [max. 2] L2 Lack in balance, effective in using either the Sources or own knowledge only. [max. 4] L3 Sound and balanced answer, effective in using both the Sources and own knowledge. [max. 7]


Miscalculations: e.g.

- Germany miscalculated Britain’s strength. (Source G) - On the eve of the War, atmosphere of Germany was bellicose, which affected Germany’s estimation of its chance of victory. (Source H) - Germany used the Schlieffen Plan, leading to wrong estimation of responses from countries including Britain and Russia, and in turn premature mobilization. All of these undermined Germany’s fighting capabilities. (own knowledge) Other factors: e.g. – Ultra-nationalism such as Pan-Germanism ignited the fire of war. (Source H) - Alliance system and armament race made war spread in Europe. (own knowledge) - Sarajevo assassination provided the spark that was necessary to make a great war. (own knowledge)

Suggested Answer

I agree with this statement. Firstly, Germany’s miscalculation caused the WWI. According to Source G, the father and son who were representing Germany used the “Hohenzollern glasses” to observe the British Lion. They mistakenly assumed Britain was weak and incompetent and claimed to “step on it and kill it”. They advocated war to conquer Britain but had misjudged the situation and caused WWI. According to Source H, the author pointed out that those war supporters thought “another forty years of peace would be a national misfortune for Germany”. They mistakenly believed that advocating war could bring great benefits to Germany and would “hit France to the ground” in triumph. They believed that Germany could easily knock France down and thus started WWI, which was a miscalculation. Secondly, Britain’s miscalculation caused the WWI. As the cartoon in Source G was published in Britain, it described the British Lion as fierce and strong. It believed that Britain was powerful enough to stop the aggression of Germany as the father and son shouted “There is some mistake here!” which was a miscalculation. Thirdly, Austria-Hungary’s miscalculation caused the WWI. According to my own knowledge, Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum after the Sarajevo crisis on June 28, 1914 and mistakenly thought Serbia would make concession. However, Serbia refused to give in and sent troops to Austria-Hungary, causing the outbreak of WWI. Thus, miscalculation of Austria Hungary caused the war. Fourthly, Russia’s miscalculation caused the WWI. According to my own knowledge, Russia initiated general mobilization to support Serbia in 1914 and together fought against Austria-Hungary. Russia misjudged the situation that they would win an easy victory against Austria-Hungary. However, Russia’s action had caused Germany to issue an ultimatum which escalated a regional war into a world war. Thus, Russia’s miscalculation caused WWI. Apart from miscalculation, there are also other factors causing the outbreak of WWI but they are less important. Firstly, extreme nationalism caused the WWI. According to Source H, the author stated that “Pan-German papers” were advocating starting a war, claiming that “It is the hour we yearned for”. They believed that war would bring national glory to the country and thus tried to win people’s support to send troops. It reflects that extreme nationalism also caused the outbreak of WWI. However, miscalculation is a more important factor. In terms of causal relationship, miscalculation of the strengths of the countries had led to a rise in nationalist sentiment. The nationalists believed that other countries would be defeated by the strong power of their own countries, which caused the outbreak of WWI. Secondly, alliance system caused the WWI. In my knowledge, the formations of the Triple Alliance in 1882 and the Triple Entente in 1907 had strengthened the confidence of their members to initiate war. For example, after the Sarajevo Crisis in 1914, Germany issued a “blank cheque” to support Austria-Hungary. Austria Hungary then stood firm and refused to give in. It sent an ultimatum to Serbia which eventually triggered the outbreak of WWI. However, in terms of causal relationship, as Austria-Hungary of the Triple Alliance mistakenly believed that Italy would support its military action, the Central Powers were more determined to initiate the WWI. Thus, miscalculation of the support from its alliance of Austria-Hungary had caused the outbreak of WWI. To conclude, I agree with this statement.